Warning: TCEQ Alert System Down On What Could Be Really Bad Air Day (Last Update 9:30 pm)

Don’t know about you, but we haven’t received a single ozone alert today, much less an “orange day” warning, despite ozone numbers climbing to over 100 ppb in both Denton and Keller, as the map of the 12 noon to 1 pm time period today on the right indicates. Yesterday played out very much like this, with readings in the 90’s by 10 am and in the 100’s by Noon.

So.. buckle your gas masks, it may be a bumpy breathing day. Please limit your outside activity and those of your kids today, especially if you live north of I-20 and west of 360 in Arlington. Today is shaping up to be a classic DFW ozone day, meaning slow winds from the southeast at 0 to 10 mph, pushing things toward the NW corner of the Metromess.

Here’s the DFW ozone map the TCEQ uses. Each box with a number on it is a different monitoring site. Click on the box and it will take you to that monitor’s readings for today. Remember they’re usually 1-2 hours behind real time. 

And also remember that the two monitors on this map already over the 100ppb benchmark are the two that only need an 8-hour average  reading in the mid-90’s or more to raise the DFW ozone “Design Value” a third time in four days to 95 ppb. If that happens, all five or six million of us would have to move away from DFW next summer for the three year running average of 84 ppb TCEQ needs for it’s proposed clean air “plan”  to work.

We’ll try to keep updating here as the day and smog plays out.

UPDATE X1 3:30 pm Sunday

The 2-3 pm Sunday map. Like we said – classic. Another 3-4 hours of these levels in Keller, and we’ll see a 95 ppb Design Value by the end of the day. We haven’t see that kind of number as an area wide ozone marker since 2007.

Update X2 4:30 pm

3 to 4 pm TCEQ map. The wind is changing in some parts of the region, from S/SE to N/NW, but at such low speeds that it’s unclear if it’ll clear things out or just keep pushing the same dirty air around the same circle. It’s the fourth hour of 100 plus ppb ozone readings in Keller.

Update X3  5:30 pm

Still the pattern of your classic North Texas ozone day. The Keller monitor is averaging 100 ppb over 7 hours. That includes an 81 ppb reading at 9 am this morning that’s sure to be eclipsed by whatever shows up in the coming hour. It looks to set a new season high – set just this last Thursday at 100 ppb.

Grapevine was in its third consecutive hour of 100 plus ppb ozone at 4 pm. It’ll probably end up in the mid to upper 90’s. Also not great.

Denton currently has a 6-hour average of 97 ppb. If that doesn’t dip below 95 in the next two readings, it will be competing with Keller to see which site establishes a new DFW ozone “Desgin Value” (the highest reading among all fourth-highest readings). Chances are one or both will see a high enough level of pollution today to push their #3s to that all-important #4 slot. And both sites have a 95 ppb reading in their #3s right now.

And it’s Sunday. What happens if this same pattern holds true for the start of the work week?

Update X4 6:30 pm 

 

As of 4 pm today, Keller residents were in their 6th hour of 100 + ppb of ozone pollution. It also means the monitor there will record an 8-hour average of at least 100 ppb and that in turn means that yesterday’s 3rd highest reading of 95 ppb moves down into the benchmark position of #4, setting a new DFW “Desgin Value” for the third time in four days.

It’s very possible the Denton monitor will also be establishing a new DV with a 95 reading from all the way back in June if the current 7-hour average of 97 holds up.

The last four days has turned the merely unreachable goals of the STILL PROPOSED state air plan, into the totally comical.  No one in officialdom expected this kind of leap in DFW smog this summer – standing now at a full 9 ppb higher than last year and putting us back into the range we were breathing BEFORE the first clean air plan aimed at the 85 ppb standard was implemented in 2007. The question is: Do official DFW air planners get the message this summer’s smog is sending? 

Last Update 9:30 pm

Here are the maps from 6 to 7 and 7 to 8 pm.

At 6 pm, the Keller monitor had an 8-hour average of 102 ppb, and that still included one reading below 100 from this morning.

And yep, the Denton monitor will record an “exceedence” of at least
97 ppb today, meaning the new 95 ppb Design Value is now shared between it and Keller.

And here’s the 7 to 8 pm map that’s going to finish things off for tonight. Keller establishes a new 8-hour region high for this season of 103 ppb. Denton sees a second-highest 98 ppb 8 hour average.

Levels will trail off, but they might not trail off that much. Part of what’s made these last two days so bad is that the overnight ozone levels remain high. If that happens tonight and we go into a work day with the combination of circumstances that have been causing this weekend’s high reading…..

Another bad day could see the DFW Design Value go to 97 ppb by way of the Keller site. Another two days and it’s in 100 ppb plus territory. Denton is also a couple of bad days away from sending us to the same fate. It’s hard to overstate just how contradictory this scenario is to the Way Things Are Supposed To Go.

We’re not “almost there” any more. Air quality in DFW is not getting better. Rick Perry’s policies haven’t made the air cleaner. In fact, they’ve brought us to this massive failure. This weekend settles it – empirically.