Level Orange Warnings on Eve of TCEQ Air Plan Vote – Updated/final

At 1:15 pm today, the TCEQ issued a “LEVEL ORANGE” warning for the Dallas-Ft. Worth area. Ozone air pollution levels are rated as UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS based on measurements at the following monitoring site(s)*:

Denton Airport South
Keller
Grapevine Fairway

There’s something familiar about those monitor sites. Oh yeah, they’re some of the same ones, along with Eagle Mountain Lake and Meacham Field, located in the NW quadrant of the Metromess, that traditionally record the most, and the most severe, ozone violations in the entire region. They’re downwind of the central Texas coal plants and the Midlothian cement plants. They also happen to be located in the middle of the Barnett Shale in Tarrant, and Denton Counties.

TCEQ is scheduled to vote on the proposed DFW air plan this coming Wednesday. That plan doesn’t address any of those major sources of smog-forming pollution except for the token application of controls on condensate tanks that emit more than 25 tons of Volatile Organic Compounds a year that nets the Commission a whole 14 tons per year in reductions. That’s compared to 114 tons per day of VOCs emitted by the gas industry in the area – more than all the cars and trucks in DFW.

Instead, the TCEQ mostly just sits as a spectator while it takes credit for the federal government’s auto emissions reductions, which the state says will allow us to meet the obsolete 1997 ozone standard of 85 ppb by 2013. So many DFW residents will be trading older more polluting cars for newer, less polluting ones, that no other anti-pollution measures are necessary, says the TCEQ. 

Just a reminder that the TCEQ has never gotten any prediction about DFW air quality right in the past 20 years. The air plan to be voted on Wednesday in Austin is a do-over for the failed plan of 2006. Might we need a do-over for the do-over?  The next three summers will tell.

Meanwhile, science marches on, and a new federal ozone standard is due out in July, probably somewhere in the 65 to 70 ppb range. That’s what most experts believe to be a safer level of exposure to smog. That’s 16 parts per billion, at least another whole new air plan, and a lot of pollution cuts away from the DFW status quo in 2011.

Update 1 at 2:00 pm: 

You can track the individual monitors mentioned in this warning, but it’s not easy because most of the maps TCEQ uses are not updated in real time and lag by hours. You have to go to each individual monitor description and then click for current readings.

For example, in Grapevine, you had an 11 am reading of 93 ppb of ozone with the next two hours 11am to 12pm and 12pm to 1pm “not available” which is TCEQ for “Wow, those numbers are high, let’s see if we can find a way to downplay them or make them go away.”

Same thing at the Denton Airport. There you had an 11 am ozone level of 91ppb, with the next hour’s readings unavailable because of the “lack of valid data,” or they’re simply “not available.” See a pattern here?

In Keller, ozone levels reached 100 ppb at 11 am – the highest level recorded this ozone season by far, with the next two hours also MIA as of 2pm.

Remember, it takes an 8-hour average of 85 or above to constitute a violation, so every hourly number counts a lot toward the final end-of-day average. Missing two hours of what could be very high numbers could throw the average off by a lot – below violation levels for example.

What’s also interesting is that while the TCEQ website says “The latest images available are for Monday June 6, 2011 12-13:00 CDT,” in fact, the latest images and readings on its map are from the 9 to 10 am hour – before the high 11 am ozone readings occurred. That is, even though the individual monitoring sites show high levels of ozone being recorded at 11am this morning, none of the TCEQ maps reflect these high readings because they’re still frozen at 10am.

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2:18 pm screen grab

Update 2 at 2:30:

New numbers up, although TCEQ is still 2 hours behind in their reporting.

101 ppb of ozone at Keller at the 12 noon reading, still no info for the following two hours.
101 ppb of ozone at Denton airport at 12 noon.
103 ppb at Grapevine at 12 noon.
98 ppb in Pilot Point at 12 noon.
96 ppb at Frisco at 12 noon.
91 ppb at North Dallas at 12 noon.
91 ppb at Hinton St in Dallas at 12 noon.

Based on these numbers and the weather, we’ll probably have our first violation of the ozone season today. Congratulations to everyone in Austin who made this possible.

Update at 3:30:

92 ppb in Keller at 1 pm. Strange that the ozone is decreasing even as temperature increases. Four hour average of almost 93 ppb.
98 ppb at the Denton Airport site at 1pm, with a four hour average of 91 ppb.
96 ppb at Grapevine at 1pm, with a four-hour average of over 92 ppb.
91 ppb at Pilot Point at 1pm, with a four hour average of 86 ppb.
110 ppb  at Frisco at 1pm – highest reading of the day so far, and already a four-hour average of 90 ppb.
91 ppb at North Dallas at 1pm, four hour average of 81ppb
88 ppb at Hinton in Central Dallas at 1pm, four hour average of 84 ppb.

It takes an 8-hour average of 85 or above for a violation of the 1997 ozone standard – the one DFW hasn’t met yet.
And the TCEQ map remains frozen at 10 am this morning.

Update at 5:00:

Keller is suddenly at 84 ppb at 2pm but still has a five hour average of 91. Potential violation still occurring.
Denton is at 90 pbb at 2pm, with a five hour avg of 91. 4 and a six hour avg of 86.6. Potential violation still occurring.
Grapevine is 98 ppb at 2pm, five hour avg of 93, six hour avg of 87. Unless something drastically good happens, this will be a violation day for this monitor.
Pilot Point is at 89 ppb at 2pm with a five hour average of 87. Potential violation still occurring.
Frisco is at 105 ppb at 2 pm with a six hour avg of 87 already. Also looks to be a violation at this site today.
North Dallas is at 79 ppb at 2 pm with a five hour avg just above 85. Probably not a violation day.
Dallas Hinton is at 75 with a four hour avg of 85. Probably not a violation day.

Doesn’t appear to be any other DFW monitors in range for a violation besides these seven. Higher winds are forecast for tomorrow and if they’re high enough, it may save DFW from consecutive ozone violation days.

Update at 6:00 :

All TCEQ monitor readings are still three hours behind. The following are from 3 pm:
Keller – back up to 86 ppb. Six hour avg of 90 ppb.
Denton Airport – 102 ppb. Seven hour avg of 88 ppb. This now looks like a probable violation.
Grapevine – 103 ppb. Seven hour avg of 89.5 ppb. One more high reading away from the season’s first ozone violation.
Pilot Point – 98 ppb. Six hour avg of 89 ppb.
Frisco – 86 ppb (something must have blown in big time and out again). Even so, it has a seven hour avg. of 86.8, so the next hour or two will be the difference.
North Dallas – down to 71 ppb. Definitely not a violation at this site today.
Dallas Hinton – down to 66 ppb. Ditto.

And of course the map TCEQ sends out with the 6pm readings that are really 3 pm readings is still frozen at 10 am readings.

Update at 7:30: First two ozone violations of 2011.

All TCEQ ozone monitors still three hours behind. The following are for 4 pm.

Keller – 90 ppb. Right now it has a 85.7 eight hour avg. that includes a 55 from 9 am. The next hour should bring an official violation.
Denton Airport – 109 ppb. Eight hour avg. of 91.3 – the first definite ozone violation of 2011. That average will go up as the numbers for 5 and 6 pm come in.
Grapevine – down to 88 ppb, but not in time to save it from the second definite ozone violation of 2012, with an eight hour avg of 89.3 ppb.
Pilot Point – 91 ppb with a seven hour avg of 89 ppb.
Frisco – 64, but with a seven hour avg. of 88 ppb.

And of course, no better symbol than the never-changing TCEQ map that you click onto with each new warning alert, still stuck at 10 am this morning. Ozone? What ozone?